Theory of Change
What is it and why should we use it?
‘Theory of change’ is an outcomes-based approach which applies critical thinking to the design, implementation and evaluation of initiatives and programmes intended to support change in their contexts.
Image credit: Sidney Harris
Definition
There’s no universally agreed definition of what constitutes a Theory of Change. If you hear someone refer to ‘Theory of Change’ today, they can mean a number of things.
- Some people use it to refer a short statement that encapsulates how their organisation makes a difference. Something not unlike a mission statement. This also links to the idea of a value proposition, describing the unique way that a specific organisation addresses an injustice or inequity.Predominantly, though, it refers to a detailed description of how the organisation believes change happens. This description usually takes the form of a diagram and an accompanying narrative.
- Some people view it as a technical tool. It is a way to map out a logical sequence that links initiatives to the change they seek to influence. To others it is a process of reflective consideration and critical thinking that explicitly explores assumptions of how change happens, taking into account different philosophies, world views and contexts. And arguably, many theories of change will combine both approaches.
- Finally, Theory of Change can be a consideration of change at a systemic level – for example, how people are lifted out of poverty or how young people’s employment prospects are improved. Or it can be more focussed – considering how a specific organisation’s work or a particular project will make a difference in a wider system.
Why should we use it?
- To understand the context and situation as a starting point for planning programmes, bringing critical thinking to bear on the assumptions around a programme, to make the views on how the programme is expected to work transparent.
- To help move beyond ‘business as usual’, generic programme designs through a greater awareness of the context.
- To develop a common understand of the work and surfacing differences in perspective in a positive way.
- To strengthen the clarity, effectiveness and focus of programmes.
- To provide more flexible alternative to working with log-frames for complex programmes and contexts.
- To use as a framework from which to assess impact and improve monitoring and evaluation, to test the assumptions, demonstrate impact and learn from it.
- To improve relationships with partners and stakeholders by identifying opportunities for dialogue and collaboration.
- To provide a unifying framework for strategic decision-making, communicating and reporting.
- To have a clearer conceptualisation of ‘impact’ and understanding the intermediate changes that have significance for programmes and stakeholders, to enable strategies to be optimised for the context.
- To strengthen adaptive management, responsiveness to changes in the context.
- To find new ways of bringing rigour to the evaluation of complex and emergent change in difficult areas like governance.
Useful resources
Coded by E. Dufay